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Mortgage Market Update – November 2025
Economic Climate Overview
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% in the September 2025 quarter, bringing annual inflation to 3.2%, up from 2.1% in Q2 2025. The trimmed mean CPI, the RBA’s preferred measure, increased 1.0% quarterly and 3.0% annually, surpassing forecasts.
Key contributors to this increase include:
Electricity prices rising by 9.0%
Housing costs up by 6.3%
Travel expenses seeing notable growth
Meanwhile, employment remains stable, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, reflecting a resilient labour market despite ongoing economic pressures.
RBA Interest Rate Outlook
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is set to announce its next interest rate decision on Tuesday, 4 November 2025.
Given the higher-than-expected inflation, major banks — including CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ — now expect the RBA to hold the cash rate at 3.60%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock described the inflation results as a “material miss,” signalling that the Board remains cautious about easing too soon.
Historical Interest Rate Trends
Over the past five years, the RBA has shifted from record-low interest rates during the pandemic to a tightening cycle that began in 2022.
Rates peaked at 4.10% in mid-2024 before easing slightly to the current 3.60%. This gradual shift highlights the RBA’s challenge — balancing inflation control while sustaining economic growth.
For more on how interest rate movements can affect your loan strategy, visit our Home Loan Advice page.
Expert Opinions
Financial institutions continue to take a cautious stance:
CBA has ruled out further cuts this cycle, citing strong inflation and steady consumer demand.
Westpac is reassessing its earlier forecast, which anticipated three rate cuts by mid-2026.
ANZ and NAB now expect the next rate cut to arrive no earlier than Q1 2026.
The general consensus? The RBA will likely hold steady, monitoring how the economy absorbs existing conditions before making further adjustments.
Borrower Advice for 2025
With inflation sitting at 3.2% and interest rates steady at 3.60%, borrowers should take proactive steps to strengthen their financial position:
Review your mortgage structure – Determine if a fixed or variable rate best aligns with your financial goals.
Budget for flexibility – Rate movements may slow, but economic uncertainty remains. Build your budget with room for change.
Explore refinancing opportunities – Compare lenders and see if a better rate or product fits your needs. Start here with our Refinancing Options.
Maintain a financial buffer – Aim to save at least 3–6 months of living expenses to protect against unexpected changes.
Seek professional guidance – A qualified Mortgage Broker at Kista Finance can help tailor a strategy that fits your unique circumstances.|
Final Thoughts
The mortgage market in late 2025 remains steady but sensitive to inflation trends and global pressures. Staying informed and working with a trusted mortgage professional ensures you’re prepared to adapt — no matter where rates move next. If you’d like to discuss your home loan strategy or refinancing options, get in touch with Kista Finance, your trusted Mortgage Broker in Australia, and let’s secure your next financial move with confidence.
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